Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.8% for Clinton, and 49.2% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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