DeSart & Holbrook model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 65.5% for Clinton, and 34.5% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

Single models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart & Holbrook model Clinton's econometric model average is 65.5 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 12.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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