IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 3 to November 6. A total of 1026 respondents responded. The sampling error is +/-3.1 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.