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Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead


The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.7%. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with 52.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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