Crosstab model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.6% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 46.4%.

Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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