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Crosstab model in South Carolina: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.1% for Clinton, and 52.9% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was still predicted to obtain 53.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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