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Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.7%. In comparison, on November 6, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.6% of the vote.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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