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Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead


The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 51.4%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 48.5% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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