Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.5% for Clinton, and 51.5% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to obtain 51.4% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. This value is 51.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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