Crosstab model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 35.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 64.7%. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to collect 64.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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