Crosstab model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 35.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will end up with 64.7%. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to collect 64.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.