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Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.5% for Clinton, and 41.5% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to achieve 59.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 0.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 58.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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