Crosstab model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, and 45.9% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to obtain 45.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 0.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 54.1 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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