The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.9% for Clinton, and 51.1% for Trump in Iowa.
Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.