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Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.9% for Clinton, and 51.1% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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