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Crosstab model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 43.1% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, whereas Trump will end up with 56.9%. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was still predicted to garner 57.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Indiana. Compared to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 56.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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