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Crosstab model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to win 33.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 69.7% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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