The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.3% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will win 47.7%. In comparison, on November 5 Trump was predicted to obtain 47.4% of the vote.
In Colorado, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Colorado. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.