Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 63.6% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 36.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of California econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 63.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 10.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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