Crosstab model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.3% for Clinton, and 55.7% for Trump in Alaska. In comparison, on November 3, Clinton was predicted to win 45.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Alaska sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 55.7 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in Alaska. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Alaska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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