Results of a new national poll administered by ABC/Post were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC/Post poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from October 31 to November 3 with 1419 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. For comparison: Only 51.6% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC/Post poll on November 2, for Trump this result was 48.4%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to her numbers in the ABC/Post poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.