PPP (D) published the results of a new poll on November 6. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 61.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 15 to April 17, among a random sample of 879 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.