Results of a new national poll administered by NBC News were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 31 to November 6 among 3014 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NBC News poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.