Clinton leads by 7 points in new NBC News poll

Results of a new national poll administered by NBC News were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

NBC News poll results
51

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 31 to November 6 among 3014 participants. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NBC News poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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