Clinton leads by 4 points in new Ipsos/Reuters poll
By Results of a new national poll carried out by Ipsos/Reuters were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from October 31 to November 4 among 2244 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.1 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. On November 3 Clinton obtained 53.0% in the Ipsos/Reuters poll and Trump obtained only 47.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.
