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Clinton leads by 4 points in new Ipsos/Reuters poll

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Results of a new national poll carried out by Ipsos/Reuters were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Ipsos/Reuters poll results
44

Clinton

40

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from October 31 to November 4 among 2244 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.1 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. On November 3 Clinton obtained 53.0% in the Ipsos/Reuters poll and Trump obtained only 47.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 51.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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