Results of a new national poll administered by ABC were circulated. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
ABC poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 31 to November 3. A total of 1419 respondents responded. The margin of error is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. In the latest ABC poll on November 2 Clinton received only 51.6%, while Trump received 48.4%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. Compared to her numbers in the ABC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.