In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump.
What Polly's components predict
There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.1% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump gained 2.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has presented a change this large.
In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 55.1% in prediction markets is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 1996,. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 57.5% for the Democratic candidate.