The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.
This is what Polly's component methods predict
The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 50.2% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton loses 2.7 percentage points.