Results of a new national poll administered by IBD were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 1 to November 4 among 804 participants. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On November 2 Clinton obtained only 50.0% in the IBD poll and Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.