CBS/Times poll: Trump trails by a narrow margin

CBS/Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

CBS/Times poll results
47

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 47.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was conducted from November 2 to November 6 with 1426 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.6 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On November 1 Clinton obtained only 51.7% in the CBS/Times poll and Trump obtained 48.4%.

Results compared to other polls

Clinton currently achieves 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to her numbers in the CBS/Times poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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