The Big-issue model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.2%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.