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Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Big-issue model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.2%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to end up with 51.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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