The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 51.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.