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Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 51.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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