The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 38.5% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 61.6%. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to gain 61.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.