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Arkansas: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 38.5% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 61.6%. In comparison, on November 6 Trump was predicted to gain 61.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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