Arkansas: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 38.2% for Clinton, and 61.8% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to gain 59.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arkansas sees Trump at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 61.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Crosstab model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 14.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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