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Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.6% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 52.4%. In comparison, on November 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 48.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arizona. Compared to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 52.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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