Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 52.3%. In comparison, on November 7 Trump was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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