Alabama: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 39.6% for Clinton, and 60.4% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to win 40.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.5% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.