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Alabama: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 40.2% for Clinton, and 59.8% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on November 3 Trump was predicted to collect 59.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. Compared to his numbers in the Crosstab model Trump's econometric model average is 59.8 percentage points worse.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 12.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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