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ABC poll: Clinton with 5 points lead

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ABC published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

ABC poll results
49

Clinton

44

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from November 1 to November 4 among 1685 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.1% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC poll on November 3, for Trump this result was 47.9%.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the ABC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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