ABC published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
ABC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from November 1 to November 4 among 1685 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.1% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC poll on November 3, for Trump this result was 47.9%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the ABC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.