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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on November 5, Clinton was predicted to collect only 51.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.2%. Compared to her numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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