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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump. In comparison, on November 4 Trump was predicted to win 48.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to her numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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