Vanderbilt University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt University poll results
Of those who responded, 33.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2 with 1000 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump. In the latest Vanderbilt University poll on May 11 Clinton received 44.3%, while Trump received only 55.7%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.