Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 10 to April 11 with 1043 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. On September 5 Clinton obtained 58.8% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained only 41.2%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote is 4.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.