Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 11 to October 13, among a random sample of 402 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump. In the most recent Monmouth poll on August 16 Clinton received only 43.4%, while Trump received 56.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 54.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 55.7% of the two-party vote in Indiana. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.