The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.