Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Illinois for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 53.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 27 to October 30 with 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 59.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Illinois. This value is 3.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.