538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump. In comparison, on November 1, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.3%. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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