Results of a new poll conducted by Remington Research (R) were announced. The poll asked respondents from Virginia for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30 with 1106 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.