Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 69.9% for Clinton, and 30.1% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on November 1 Trump was still predicted to achieve 30.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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