Results of a new national poll administered by IBD were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
The results show that 45.0% of participants would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 26 to October 31. A total of 1018 respondents responded. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On October 30 Clinton obtained 51.1% in the IBD poll and Trump obtained only 48.9%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the IBD poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.