Results of a new poll carried out by Siena were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from New York for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 13 and October 17. The sample size was 611 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.