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Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton, and 46.4% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to obtain 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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