OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.